Welcome to Wider Europe, RFE/RL's newsletter focusing on the key issues concerning the European Union, NATO, and other institutions and their relationships with the Western Balkans and Europe's Eastern neighborhoods.
I'm RFE/RL Europe Editor Rikard Jozwiak, and this week I'm drilling down on two issues: a potential peace plan for Ukraine and Armenia’s long road to EU visa liberalization.
Briefing #1: Will Europe’s 12-Point Plan On Ukraine Work?
What You Need To Know: With the proposed summit between US President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, in Budapest seemingly postponed, European countries are once again scrambling to make themselves relevant in any potential settlement of the Ukraine war.
One of the latest attempts is a leaked 12-point plan, seen by RFE/RL, initiated by Finland that has been circulating in European capitals in recent weeks.The document is not a ready-made peace deal, something that its tentative title, “Elements Towards Peace In Ukraine,” makes clear. It has also not been discussed at a higher EU level nor officially endorsed by any country. Rather it is something that has been worked on by the Coalition of the Willing, a collection of over 20 countries supporting Ukraine, since the spring.
The 12 points are framed around two phases: the first one, “cease-fire,” and the other, “negotiations.” A “cease-fire first”approach is something that most European nations have been pushing for ever since the Trump administration started talking with the Kremlin. The document states that such a cease-fire “will begin 24 hours after the parties have accepted this plan” and that a line of contact “will be frozen at the point where it is at the start of the cease-fire.”
Deep Background: In a nod to the United States being in the driving seat of the talks, it is also suggested that the monitoring of the cease-fire will begin “immediately under US leadership, using satellites, drones, and other technological tools." Also during the cease-fire phase, the plan is that Ukraine and Russia agree on a “nonaggression pact,” meaning that while Moscow will stop attacks on Ukraine, Kyiv also must refrain from trying to take back Russian-controlled territories in Ukrainian regions such as Crimea, Donbas, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhya by military means. Regarding the nuclear power plant in the latter region, the proposed idea is to transfer it from Russian control to an unnamed third party and start negotiations on letting Ukraine take it over again.
Under the plan, there would also be “confidence-building measures," which are spelled out as “selected, symbolic sanctions being lifted once the cease-fire has lasted for an agreed number of days.” Another idea is that Russia would be welcomed back to international organizations. While not explicitly spelled out, it could be assumed that this would mean the Council of Europe, which Russia was excluded from in 2022 and the International Olympic Committee. It is also proposed that during the cease-fire phase, a “Board of Peace” would be established, chaired by President Trump, to oversee the implementation of an eventual peace plan -- an idea seemingly borrowed from a recently unveiled 20-points peace plan for Gaza.
Drilling Down:
- The second phase -- negotiations --firstly involves an armistice. The text notes that “negotiations on a final line of contact will begin, which will remain in effect until the parties have agreed on permanent governance of the occupied territories.”
- This will also involve security zones established around the line of contact where no military activities will be allowed and monitoring by a multinational, civilian mission on both sides of the line.
- Security guarantees, something the Coalition of the Willing has been working on for months, is the 8th point even though no further details are offered.
- The 9th point is controversial as it concerns a high-level dialogue between Kyiv and Moscow to “increase mutual understanding and respect for diversity of language, culture, and religion.”
- Officials from eastern EU countries that RFE/RL has been in touch with believe that this point plays up Russian allegations, often regarded as baseless, that Russian-language speakers in Ukraine were discriminated against and needed protection by Moscow.
- The next point is controversial for many European governments as it mentions “the start of negotiations on the permanent governance of the occupied territories.” This goes against the “maximalist” views that many EU capitals hold that Ukraine shouldn’t relinquish any new territories and that its territorial integrity is crucial.
- The penultimate point involves reconstruction, in which a fund will be established for Ukraine. It is noted that frozen Russian assets might be used for the fund.
- Finally, there is a line on Russia sanctions gradually being lifted as the plan is being implemented. Here, it is also mentioned that Ukraine and Russia will start a process on agreeing compensation for war damage with the frozen assets in the West, totaling over 200 billion euros ($233 billion), proposed to be returned once an agreement between Kyiv and Moscow has been reached. A so-called snapback mechanism in which all sanctions and isolation measures automatically are imposed if Ukraine is attacked again is also suggested here.
- So how much chance does this plan have of succeeding? “Probably not much,” admits one European official I spoke to on background. And while some of them still think that the United States might be interested in at least some aspects of the proposals, few believe that Russia will get onboard anytime soon. As one European diplomat put it: “We can have a 12-point-plan, but there won’t be peace -- that is Putin’s one-point-plan.”
Briefing #2: Will Armenia Be Next To Get EU Visa Liberalization?
What You Need To Know: There are lots of discussions in Brussels right now about suspending visa-free travel into the bloc for certain Georgians, most likely officials and diplomats, after what several European Union countries regard as democratic backsliding in the South Caucasus country. That decision is likely to be taken late this year, after the European Commission’s annual EU enlargement report, which is expected to give a scathing review of the political situation in Tbilisi, and when the new, easier rules for suspending visa liberalization enter into force in December.
In parallel, however, the EU is taking steps to eventually grant visa liberalization for another country from the region -- Armenia. Since 2014, the country has enjoyed so-called visa facilitation with the EU, meaning that it’s cheaper and easier to obtain visas. In 2024, Yerevan started a visa liberalization dialogue with Brussels, the first step on the long road to its citizens being allowed to enter most EU countries for a period of 90 days without the need for a visa.
Deep Background: The next step was taken on October 22, when EU member states agreed on the visa liberalization action plan (VLAP). This document, seen by RFE/RL, outlines what Armenia needs to do in four broad policy fields in the coming years: document security; migration management and asylum; public order and security; and external relations and fundamental rights. It is now expected that the document will be handed over to Armenia in the coming weeks and that work on reforms in the various fields will begin. With the European Union growing increasingly wary of any type of immigration into the bloc, it is clear from the document that it is migration management and asylum that will be the one of the four areas most closely observed. The European Commission, which will be the EU institution that will propose that Armenia is ready for a visa-free regime (though the proposal needs to be backed by a majority in the European Parliament and all 27 EU member states), will need to take into account the visa-refusal rate of Armenian citizens or the number that are being refused entry at the EU’s external border and apprehended for staying too long in the EU. According to the VLAP: "A substantial improvement in these performance indicators over the course of the visa dialogue, will be used as an indicative reference in the Commission’s assessment of the expected migratory and security impacts of the liberalization of the visa regime with Armenia."
So far, those rates are stable, but they need to be reduced to satisfy governments in the EU that are increasingly led or supported by populist parties. An EU diplomat with knowledge of the issue speaking on condition of anonymity said that the main worry is that the number of Armenian citizens apprehended for overstays in the EU has increased in recent years. The VLAP document notes that asylum seekers in the EU from Armenia have risen from 4,655 in 2019 to 5,125 in 2024. "That number must go down in the coming years, otherwise things won’t move here," the diplomat noted.
Drilling Down:
- Other key issues that need to be sorted out include a clear timeframe for the rollout of biometric passports and a phaseout of old passports; implementation of all international anti-money-laundering legislation; striking a cooperation deal with Europol that would allow exchange of personal data that would enable “establishing fair and transparent conditions for the acquisition of Armenian citizenship.”
- That last point has become increasingly important for the bloc as it is fighting against various types of “investor citizenship schemes,” in which rich people can get passports from certain countries simply by making a big investment. This has been a common tactic for Russians and Belarusians trying to circumvent the EU’s various sanctions on Moscow and Minsk in recent years.
- So, what happens next? Expect that the European Commission will issue its first progress report on how Armenia is faring in the first half of 2026. Incidentally, Georgia completed such reforms faster than any other country, accomplishing the process in just over two years.
- Georgia was given its VLAP in early 2013, and, in late 2015, the European Commission already proposed visa-free status in its fourth and final progress report. The European Parliament and EU member states agreed with the assessment shortly after and, in March 2016, visa liberalization kicked in for Georgians.
- Will it go that fast for Yerevan, meaning Armenians can get visa-free travel by late 2027? “Maybe not that fast,” said one EU official dealing with the issue, who was speaking on the condition of anonymity. However, the EU is keen to support Armenia right now given that it is the country in the region that is most interested in closer ties with Brussels.
- The European External Action Service (EEAS), the EU’s diplomatic arm, is already evaluating how the recent Moldovan parliamentary elections went and what lessons can be learnt for elections in Armenia in June 2026.
- Chisinau obviously enjoys much closer ties with the EU than Yerevan as it is an official candidate country and benefits from large financial and political support, but the EU is keen to draw Armenia closer to the bloc as well. Visa liberalization won’t be granted before Armenia's elections next year but expect a lot of encouragement from Brussels that things are moving in the right direction in the coming months.
Looking Ahead
There isn’t much happening in Brussels this week as the All Saints’ weekend approaches but EU agriculture ministers will meet on October 28. They will be joined by their counterpart from Ukraine who will brief them about the war-torn country's agricultural sector, with Kyiv still aiming to export as much grains and other products as possible, both via the Black Sea and land routes to the EU.
That's all for this week! I am off next week, so the next edition of the newsletter will be with you on November 11.
Feel free to reach out to me on any of these issues on X @RikardJozwiak, or on e-mail at jozwiakr@rferl.org.
Until next time,
Rikard Jozwiak
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