WASHINGTON -- The White House has outlined a proposed European security framework alongside security guarantees for Ukraine, as the Trump administration prepares for trilateral peace talks with Ukraine and Russia in Abu Dhabi next week.
US President Donald Trump’s envoy Jared Kushner detailed the initiative in a November 5 social media post, following discussions in Brussels with Ukrainian, NATO, and European officials.
The proposed framework includes permanent security consultations, crisis communications, greater military transparency, reciprocal measures to reduce escalation risks, and a long-term arrangement for European security and stability.
Kushner said the initiative would respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of every country, with no state having a veto over another’s security choices or alliances. NATO, he added, would remain central to European collective defense.
The announcement followed Trump’s November 5 meeting at the White House with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s special envoy, Kirill Dmitriev. Trump said he believed a “big, beautiful agreement” could be close and suggested it might involve not only Ukraine but “all of Europe.”
“It’s going to be a big agreement, and it’s going to involve more than Ukraine,” Trump told reporters, predicting that “everyone’s going to be thrilled.”
Kushner said consultations would continue through the so-called Shell Bay format, involving Ukraine, NATO, the European Union, and other European partners, with Russia also participating in the peace negotiations.
Security Concerns
The proposed link between Ukraine’s security guarantees and a broader European security architecture has prompted questions from Russia specialists about the scope of the initiative and its implications for NATO.
Glen Howard, president of the Saratoga Foundation and a longtime Russia strategist, told RFE/RL that Kushner’s announcement could be intended to reassure Ukraine and European allies that Washington was not abandoning their interests while putting pressure on Russia ahead of the negotiations.
But Howard said the reference to a broader European security architecture was particularly concerning.
He pointed to remarks by Kremlin foreign-policy adviser Yury Ushakov last week calling for a return to NATO’s pre-1997 posture, before the alliance expanded into Eastern Europe and the Baltic states.
“Since when does Russia get a say about the future of NATO and undoing the eastern flank?” Howard asked, questioning what concessions Russia would offer in return.
He warned that even putting NATO’s posture on the negotiating table could establish a precedent for Russia and future US administrations.
Howard compared the potential approach to the 1938 Munich agreement, which let Nazi Germany annex part of Czechoslovakia for Hitler’s promise of no more territorial claims, citing broader concerns about the Trump administration’s posture toward Russia, including comments by senior Pentagon official Elbridge Colby urging Baltic states to tone down anti-Russian rhetoric.
He also suggested that French and British preparations for possible peacekeeping deployments to Ukraine, as well as discussions about rerouting gas through Ukraine, could form part of a wider strategy surrounding the negotiations.
John Herbst, a former US ambassador to Ukraine and senior director at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, also expressed little optimism about the upcoming talks.
He cited Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s recent statement that Moscow would make no compromises and the reported appointment of Vladimir Medinsky to head the Russian delegation in Abu Dhabi. Medinsky previously led Russian negotiating teams without securing a breakthrough.
Herbst said European involvement could help sustain support for Ukraine and encourage Washington to take a stronger position. But he cautioned that European efforts to influence the administration had limited impact compared to the Kremlin’s ability to sway Trump.
He questioned why Washington was focusing on postwar security arrangements and de-escalation before obtaining a meaningful Russian commitment to stop fighting.
Herbst suggested that Russia’s refusal to make concessions had prompted the Trump administration to seek progress in other areas rather than exert greater pressure on the Kremlin.
The challenge, he said, was to devise guarantees strong enough to reassure Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy but not so extensive that Russia rejected a settlement.
“That’s an impossible task,” Herbst told RFE/RL, arguing that Russia does not want serious security guarantees for Ukraine, while Kyiv needs them for its survival as an independent state.
For Herbst, a meaningful breakthrough would be a clear Russian commitment to stop fighting, which he considers unlikely. He said Putin still seeks control over Ukraine and wants Trump to persuade Kyiv to surrender the remaining Ukrainian-held parts of the Donbas.
Unable to capture the territory militarily, Putin could continue attacking Ukrainian cities and civilian infrastructure to force Kyiv to give in, Herbst said.
While not mentioning Trump specifically, the EU played down suggestions of a quick deal.
"We all wish that we will have a peace deal soon. We're all working in that regard," EU spokeswoman Paula Pinho said. "But there is a lot of work that needs to go into it and, above all, there needs to be a willingness on the side of the one who first started the war."
"It's obviously up to the European Union to decide on matters which affect its security," she added.
Abu Dhabi Expectations
The trilateral US-Ukraine-Russia discussions are scheduled for November 10-11 and will be the first such peace talks since February, according to Kushner.
Mark Temnycky, a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, told RFE/RL he expected incremental progress but no breakthrough.
The main obstacles, he said, remain territorial disputes and Ukraine’s postwar security.
For security guarantees to be credible, Washington and European capitals must agree on how they would be enforced and who would finance Ukraine’s reconstruction.
The World Bank Group, European Commission, United Nations, and Ukrainian government estimate reconstruction needs at nearly $588 billion over the next decade.
'We Escaped Hell': Oleshky Residents Reach Ukraine After Years In War-Torn City
Temnycky also cautioned that Washington cannot simply offer Ukraine EU membership as part of a settlement. The decision rests with all 27 EU member states.
Two senior European diplomats in Washington told RFE/RL on November 5 that European leaders do not believe Russia is prepared to make genuine concessions on Ukraine or European security.
Parallel Diplomatic Efforts
The latest diplomatic activity coincided with several other initiatives aimed at building momentum toward a settlement.
On November 5, first lady Melania Trump hosted Russian and Ukrainian representatives at the White House to mark a six-day cease-fire she helped broker in the Russian-occupied city of Oleshky in Ukraine’s Kherson region. Nearly 800 people were evacuated during the pause in fighting, announced in late October.
“We have chosen humanity over war,” Melania Trump said, urging the parties to use the initiative to find common ground through concern for civilians.
Meanwhile, Zelenskyy arrived in Spain for talks on strengthening Ukraine’s air defenses and meetings on the sidelines of the Ibero-American summit. He said further contacts with US officials were planned before the Abu Dhabi negotiations.
“We’re coordinating with our partners to achieve concrete results on security issues and the next steps toward peace,” Zelenskyy wrote on social media.
Trump’s meeting with Dmitriev also drew attention because the Russian envoy remains under US Treasury sanctions as of November 5.
A US official told RFE/RL that it was not the two men’s first White House meeting and rejected suggestions that sanctions had prevented Dmitriev from traveling to the US, saying waivers had been issued to facilitate the visit. No official decision to remove him from the sanctions list has been announced.
