When glowing projectiles from a Russian Oreshnik ballistic missile streaked out of the night sky near Kyiv early on May 24, multiple videos recorded an odd detail. Despite a rumble of apparent impacts as the objects crashed to earth, there were none of the explosive flashes that usually accompany a missile strike.
Blurry video captured during the two previous strikes with the weapon, on Dnipro in November 2024 and Lviv in January 2026 showed a similar lack of primary blasts.
“They don’t seem to be carrying any explosives,” Pavel Podvig, a senior researcher at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research, told RFE/RL. The hypersonic projectiles that emerged from the Oreshnik, glowing with the heat of atmospheric reentry “are probably heavy objects, with the idea that the destructive force will come from the kinetic energy,” he added.
Konrad Muzyka, a defense analyst with Rochan Consulting, says the Oreshnik strikes appear to be carried out with around 36 “kinetic penetrators,” which emerged from six reentry vehicles released from the missile in its final arc of flight. Those projectiles, he says, “rely on extremely high impact velocity to destroy or penetrate targets rather than carrying large explosive charges.”
But with an estimated cost of tens of millions of dollars per missile, many commentators -- including Russians -- have questioned the utility of hurling hypersonic chunks of metal or concrete at Ukrainian targets.
“Just insanely expensive hardware slammed into the ground,” Russian military blogger Vladimir Romanov posted on Telegram alongside videos of the latest Oreshnik strike. “All for the sake of a pretty picture that nobody believes anymore (except pensioners),” he added.
The Oreshnik (hazel tree) is a medium-range ballistic missile estimated to be around 12 meters long. It has a range of some 5,000 kilometers and a reported payload of more than one ton. The mobile weapon is transported on a relatively small vehicle and was named for its ability to disappear into the landscape like a tree in a forest.
Ballistic missiles such as the Oreshnik, which deploy warheads from high altitudes, are notoriously difficult to aim with precision. That is largely immaterial in the case of a nuclear strike with a massive radius of destruction, but kinetic projectiles released from reentry vehicles can potentially fail to damage even large targets.
An open-source investigation on the impact of the 2024 Oreshnik strike on Dnipro, which targeted a Soviet-era rocket factory, eventually concluded the Oreshnik projectiles may have completely missed the sprawling plant.
Press photos made in Dnipro in the hours after the 2024 strike showed severe damage to the roof of one unidentified building, which appeared otherwise intact.
Muzyka told RFE/RL that in the case of the May 24 strike, footage "appears to show impact elements dispersed over a relatively broad area." The military analyst believes this "could indicate either deliberate distribution across multiple aim points or potentially significant accuracy limitations affecting the reentry vehicles."
In the aftermath of the Bila Tserkva strike, one Ukrainian military blogger located what he claims is the impact site of one of the projectiles. He likened the spa-pool-sized crater to the destructive force of an artillery shell.
Earlier, Ukraine’s emergency services had released images showing damaged garages and a small fire in Bila Tserkva. It is not yet clear what was targeted in the city, but Bila Tserkva is home to a Soviet-era airfield.
Experts believe the purpose of the Oreshnik attacks in Ukraine is largely psychological. “The strikes appear more consistent with strategic signalling than with an attempt to achieve significant effects [on the ground],” Muzyka told RFE/RL.
Podvig shares a similar assessment."Technically, you could probably do some damage with multiple projectiles over some soft targets, but my take is that it’s more on the signalling side."
Shortly before the May 24 Oreshnik strike, the Kremlin had called on the military to prepare "proposals" on how to retaliate for what it described as a Ukrainian drone attack on a student dormitory that killed at least 18 people.
The Oreshnik has become a propaganda focal point for the Kremlin, which has touted its speed and range -- across the entire European continent -- and ability to be armed with nuclear warheads. Russian state media have listed the claimed flight times needed for Oreshnik warheads to reach targets across Europe -- 20 minutes to London and Paris; 12 to Warsaw.
That nuclear capability, and a launch sequence similar to longer-range intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), has apparently led to unusual foreshadowing of the missile’s use. On November 20, 2024, one day before the first launch of the Oreshnik at Ukraine, the US and several other Western embassies, were closed unexpectedly due to “increased risks of air attacks.”
The day before the May 24 Oreshnik strike, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, citing intelligence from the US and Europe, said that Russia was preparing to hit Ukraine with the advanced missile.
Russia has claimed it “automatically” gives 30 minutes warning to the US ahead of Oreshnik launches. The Pentagon confirmed that it was notified “briefly” ahead of the November 2024 strike, but Podvig says it is possible that communication on Russian intentions is being shared hours earlier.
“There’s a ballistic launch agreement from 1988 that both countries still comply with that requires notification 24 hours in advance,” the weapons expert said. “Technically, it only covers ICBMs, but I can imagine that, just to be on the safe side, Russia sends notifications so these launches are not interpreted as an ICBM launch.”
America currently maintains a “launch on warning” nuclear posture, meaning the US can launch “retaliatory” strikes if incoming missiles are detected, before any impact on US soil.
