Authorities in Kazakhstan have announced they will hold a referendum next month on a new constitution, in what has been seen as a move by President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev to cement his hold on power.
The new basic law also addresses the status of the Russian language, attempting to avoid provoking Moscow while also satisfying demands to strengthen Kazakh identity after achieving independence in 1991 following centuries of Russian and Soviet dominance.
“By its essence, this is a new constitution,” Toqaev said recently. “Any changes must reflect the will of our citizens.” The referendum is set for March 15.
The authorities have sought to present the work on the new draft, presented on January 31, as inclusive. Over months, a special commission consulted experts, reviewed more than 10,000 citizen proposals via online platforms, and held public hearings.
Critics, however, argue the process was staged.
“What is presented as national discussion is, in reality, a performance. Participation is symbolic," veteran legal expert Maidan Suleimenov said. "The (draft) constitution reflects the convenience of power, not the will of the people.”
State repression of critics has reinforced these concerns. On February 4, activist Ermek Narymbay was jailed for two months for Facebook posts criticizing the draft. Other activists and journalists have faced police summons, warnings, and pressure to delete posts under “false information” directives.
Redefining Power
The draft completely restructures Kazakhstan’s political system.
The bicameral parliament is replaced by a single-chamber legislature elected through party lists, disadvantaging smaller opposition parties. A new People’s Council, fully appointed by the president, has the power to propose legislation.
Furthermore, direct presidential power is expanded. The head of state gains additional influence over appointments and can now appoint a vice president, integrated into executive continuity and succession frameworks.
The draft also allows the president to issue decrees with the force of law if parliament is dissolved. Judicial procedures are formalized, but executive control over appointments ensure the judiciary is not truly independent.
Officials insist the reforms enjoy broad support. Legislator Yelnur Beisembayev claimed, “Kazakhs support 98 percent of the provisions.”
Activists dispute this, noting the accelerated consultation process lacked full social representation and meaningful participation.
Language And Identity
Article 9 reaffirms Kazakh as the state language while maintaining Russian’s official use in state bodies. On February 10, the Constitutional Commission amended one word: the previous phrase stating that Russian is used “on equal footing” with Kazakh was changed to say it was used “along with” Kazakh.
Authorities describe this as an editorial adjustment for consistency between the Kazakh and Russian texts, but some commentators suggested it subtly lowered Russian’s implied status.
For many citizens, this is the most contentious part of the draft -- a symbolic battleground over identity, sovereignty, and the post-Soviet legacy. Activists argue that even minor wording changes reflect larger questions about the cultural and political weight of Kazakh versus Russian, which remains widely spoken in cities, state institutions, and daily life.
Some activists believe the status of Kazakh is still not sufficiently protected.
“The ambiguous language prevents full use of Kazakh in public life," said civic campaigner Serik Aliuly. "Citizens have to defend their right to access services in the state language. Removing or clarifying the ‘official language’ norm for Russian is a demand of our time.”
Political scientist Dos Koshim and lawyer Meirman Kalmakhanuly said that the wording fueled perceptions that Russian and Kazakh are equal in public life, undermining efforts to promote Kazakh in official domains. Activist Zharkyn Kurentaev was detained before a press conference on the subject, further illustrating risks to public discussion of the constitution.
Supporters of retaining Russian argue it is pragmatic, preserving social cohesion and avoiding tension with Russia, which has historically invoked the protection of Russian speakers abroad.
Moscow has cited Ukrainian legislation making the use of Ukrainian compulsory in numerous spheres of public life as evidence for false claims of a "genocide" against Russian-speakers in the country -- and a pretext for war.
One Kazakh lawmaker, Ermurat Bapi, stressed the need for caution on the subject of language.
“It is wiser for the majority to embrace their language with careful respect rather than turning it into a weapon of conflict,” he said.
Ethnic Russians make up roughly 15 percent of the population in Kazakhstan.
Authorities also appear aware that altering Russian’s constitutional status could inflame domestic tensions and provoke Moscow. The intensity of debate highlights how language in Kazakhstan remains inseparable from identity, politics, and geopolitics.
