Kyrgyz officials often tout booming trade with neighboring China, but Beijing and Bishkek sharply disagree on the scale of that commerce, according to an analysis of official data by RFE/RL's Kyrgyz Service.
China accounts for roughly one-third of Kyrgyzstan's foreign trade and nearly 40 percent of its imports, underscoring deep economic dependence. But there is a widening gap between the two countries' official statistics, highlighting a transparency problem likely to persist.
Chinese customs data show bilateral trade reaching $27.2 billion in 2025. Kyrgyzstan's figures put it at just $4.97 billion -- a gap of nearly $23 billion, or more than 5 1/2 times lower. The discrepancy also appears to be growing year over year, with the gap in trade statistics sitting at $17.1 billion in 2024.
The widening gap is drawing scrutiny from analysts and policymakers, who say it reflects structural weaknesses in customs accounting, transit oversight, and potential corruption along a key Central Asian trade corridor.
The gap has not stopped senior Kyrgyz officials, including President Sadyr Japarov, from citing the higher figures.
"We are seeing an eightfold increase in trade turnover between Kyrgyzstan and China in recent years," Japarov said during a speech at the Central Asia-China summit in Astana in June 2025. "Last year, our trade turnover reached a record high of $23 billion."
A Tale Of Two Numbers
Kyrgyz customs officials say the explanation is largely methodological.
China records all goods shipped toward Kyrgyzstan as exports, including those that merely transit the country on their way to third markets such as Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, or Pakistan. Kyrgyzstan, by contrast, counts only goods intended for domestic consumption.
"China includes all goods sent to or through Kyrgyzstan, while we account only for imports consumed domestically," Almaz Akynbekov, deputy head of the revenue department at Kyrgyzstan's State Customs Service, told RFE/RL.
He added that transit volumes are significant, with total Chinese goods passing through Kyrgyzstan estimated at 4.5 billion tons annually.
Additional discrepancies stem from unrecorded e-commerce imports, simplified customs procedures for individual buyers, and goods that enter via neighboring Kazakhstan without ever being formally registered in Kyrgyzstan.
But traders and logistics specialists say methodology explains only part of the gap.
Kyrgyzstan plays a leading role as a transit hub for Chinese goods entering Central Asia, particularly through major crossings such as Torugart and Irkeshtam, leading to a booming re-export trade and growing illicit activity.
Chinese exports accounted for more than 80 percent of total trade between the two countries in 2025, creating more room for discrepancies to widen.
Aibek Sarygul, a businessman working in cross-border cargo transport, describes widespread informal practices in shipments from Chinese manufacturing hubs such as Guangzhou and Yiwu to Kyrgyzstan's Dordoi market, one of Central Asia's largest wholesale bazaars.
"In many cases, there are no proper invoices," he told RFE/RL. '"Chinese export companies handle documentation themselves, but details such as prices and product lists are often unclear or incomplete."
Corruption And The Cost Of Opacity
The discrepancy has drawn scrutiny over the scale of underreporting and customs fraud in China-Kyrgyz trade.
Experts and officials say importers often undervalue goods or misclassify them to reduce customs duties.
In 2023, authorities exposed a corruption network involving customs officials and private companies that falsely registered Chinese goods as transit shipments bound for Uzbekistan. In reality, the goods were unloaded and sold within Kyrgyzstan without paying duties. The scheme reportedly caused damages of around 1 billion soms, or roughly $11.4 million, and led to multiple arrests.
Similar incidents were reported in 2024, including the seizure of smuggled excise stamps and falsified customs documents linked to shipments destined for Uzbekistan.
Asel Moldalieva, vice president of the Kyrgyz-Chinese Chamber of Commerce, said such practices often involve brokerage firms responsible for customs clearance.
"Some companies manipulate product codes or declare lower prices," she told RFE/RL. "For example, goods worth $3,000 may be declared as $500, avoiding thousands of dollars in taxes."
Customs officials acknowledge irregularities but say they are limited and enforcement is ongoing.
Akynbekov from the State Customs Service said Kyrgyz authorities are working to harmonize statistical methods with China and improve transparency, though no timeline has been provided.
The issue is not unique to Kyrgyzstan. Other Central Asian countries also report discrepancies with China, though at smaller levels.
In 2025, the gap between Kazakhstan's and China's reported trade volumes stood at around 43 percent, with Kazakh customs estimating trade with China at $34.1 billion and Chinese customs showing it at $48.7 billion.
