Tajikistan and Afghanistan's Taliban have engaged in a flurry of diplomacy in recent months to ease tensions and prevent armed clashes along their long, shared border.
Tajik and Taliban officials have sought to deepen cooperation on energy and trade during talks. But despite inroads, there is still deep mistrust and irreconcilable differences on both sides, experts say.
"I see the continuation of the current dynamic of 'cold cooperation,'" said Edward Lemon, a Central Asia expert at Texas A&M University.
Lemon said he expects Dushanbe and Kabul to act pragmatically in areas of mutual benefit, including joint economic projects, but does not see the two countries resolving all of their disputes.
Diplomatic Outreach
On November 15, a delegation of senior diplomats and security officials from Tajikistan arrived in Kabul for talks with Taliban officials.
The Taliban-run Bakhtar news agency said the sides discussed diplomatic and economic cooperation as well as regional security during the multiday visit.
The talks came weeks after Mohammad Yousaf Wafa, the Taliban's governor of northern Balkh Province, which borders Tajikistan, visited Dushanbe.
During his visit in late October, Wafa met with General Saimumin Yatimov, head of Tajikistan's secret service. The men discussed ways to prevent armed groups from crossing their countries' 1,357-kilometer border, according to Tajik media.
The recent diplomacy coincided with clashes between Tajik and Taliban border forces. In the most recent incident, on October 25, the sides exchanged gunfire near a gold mining site along the Panj River that separates Afghanistan and Tajikistan. One Taliban fighter was killed in an earlier clash in August.
Dispute Over Armed Groups
Since the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan in 2021, Dushanbe and Kabul have accused each other of harboring armed groups.
Tajikistan was the only neighboring country to publicly oppose the Taliban's return to power, calling the militant group a threat to regional stability.
There have also been reports that Dushanbe is hosting or in contact with some of the leaders of the National Resistance Front (NRF), an anti-Taliban resistance group largely made up of ethnic Tajiks from Afghanistan. Tajikistan has denied the claim.
The Afghan Embassy in Dushanbe is run by an ambassador appointed by the ex-Afghan government who is believed to be sympathetic to the NRF. The Taliban, however, controls the Afghan consulate in the eastern Tajik city of Khorog.
Meanwhile, Tajikistan accuses the Taliban of backing Jamaat Ansarullah, an Islamist militant group based in Afghanistan. Mainly comprising Tajik citizens, the group seeks to overthrow Tajikistan's secular government.
In 2021, the Taliban deployed hundreds of Jamaat Ansarullah fighters along Afghanistan's border with Tajikistan after Dushanbe conducted joint military exercises with Russia near the frontier.
Obaidullah Baheer, an Afghan academic based in Kabul, said the Taliban has demanded Tajikistan hand over control of the Afghan Embassy in Dushanbe. The Taliban has also demanded the closure of alleged NRF offices in Tajikistan, he said.
The Status Quo
Despite differences, Tajikistan and the Taliban are taking steps to boost cooperation.
Afghanistan currently imports most of its electricity from Tajikistan as well as neighboring Uzbekistan. The sides are also discussing new economic projects and the loosening of visa restrictions.
But there are limits to their cooperation, experts say.
"These relations are unlikely to grow into handing over the Afghan Embassy in Dushanbe to the Taliban because it is a sensitive issue domestically for Tajikistan," Tajik political analyst Shirali Rezaian told RFE/RL's Radio Azadi.
Lemon of Texas A&M University said Tajikistan's recognition of the Taliban government remains unlikely. Russia is the only country to formally recognize the group's rule in Afghanistan.
"The Tajik side has few incentives to break from the status quo," he said.
